Dear Friends
So, what’s the update?
You may recall that in the April 2025 edition of eGrow I discussed the influence of US President Donald Trump on financial markets. Whilst I am not a Trump apologist, and I certainly can’t predict where the indices will be, my foundational training in economics naturally leads me to the question – just what impact has The Donald had?
From the time Trump has been President, to late July 2025, the broad Dow Jones Index (USA) has risen by roughly 5.5% – while the Australian market has declined very slightly (0.2%) from an all-time high in January 2025. Overall, we would describe it as flat; America has boomed while Australia has stayed still.
Many people to whom I speak have assumed that the Australian stock market was up 5%, and not the US – reinforcing just how sensationalist reporting by ill-informed journalists can so often build the wrong impression.
This scenario highlights the benefit for investors in having a balanced portfolio, with an ‘index investing’ approach providing diversification through exposure to broad markets. In my view, it is, impossible to continually ‘pick winners’ in stocks on domestic or global markets.
In the current climate, our clients have benefited by their exposure to US stocks through the Marinis index investing approach. This is despite the role of the large hedge funds adding a further complication to the mix in this period, with short positions in stocks and price manipulation contributing to current market unrest.
Of course, everything can change in a heartbeat, however a recent update by leading index investment manager Vanguard Australia left me reflecting positively that our insurance policy of Index Investing remains sound. I am becoming increasingly ‘anti-consensus’ about the economic forecasts, as I suspect the corporate economists have a little too much self-interest, or are too frightened to be contrarian.
You may be interested in this article here for a little more depth on the benefit of spreading the risks in investing – remembering that investing is the opposite of gambling.
As I often say: “I’m smart enough to know that I’m not very smart”. While I can’t tell you where investment markets will be in 12 months, which stocks will boom – or bust – and how to get rich quickly, I can tell you how to “get rich slowly and stay rich.”
The first question we ask ourselves at Marinis re our investment philosophy is always “Is this decision in our client’s best interest?” When the answer is yes, we stick to it.
As always, I will be keeping a close eye on the current investment climate and continue to provide you with updates.
And One More Thing:
You may have read about the frozen Shield Master fund (Superfund) and the collapsed First Guardian Master Fund which allegedly offered investors returns of 17% per annum (double that of what would realistically be described as an extremely high return) marketed through a high-pressure sales campaign.
You will not be surprised to read that they are out of business. There is speculation that the $548,000 Lamborghini Urus bought by the directors of one of the entities (no doubt purchased as an unlisted ‘investment’) may have been purchased with some of the missing $1.2 billion of retirement savings of approximately 12,000 investors.
Every decade of my adult life this kind of rort seems to poke its head up. The ‘greedy elf’ on the shoulders of some investors renders them blind to the basic logic of investing: “if something sounds too good to be true, it probably is.”
When you look at the long-term investment returns of the ASX, they average around 7.5% pa. Inflation, despite recent breakouts, averages around 2.5% pa. So, a real return of 5% pa is quite healthy. A purported return of 17% pa is either a sign that there is about to be a huge crash, or an indication of sham performance. I genuinely hope the investors get most of their money back and we can raise awareness towards adopting a less cavalier attitude to retirement saving.
Bear in mind that at Marinis Financial Group, we engage only with approved, well audited financial product providers; we seek always to avoid conflicts of interest, or any culture where sales are prioritised over our client duty of care.
To protect clients against loss due to any error which may occur in the advice process, we also ensure that we maintain adequate levels of Professional Indemnity insurance. Our staff are client focussed, and we strive to maintain personal relationships with all our clients.
And another thing – remember to stay cyber safe!
In late July one of our long-term clients received an email from an Account Based Pension fund with the announcement: “Your 2025/2026 Income Stream Payment Schedule and Annual Centrelink/DVA Schedule are available.”
Having read this section of eGrow, he immediately contacted us. Given that he is not a Centrelink or DVA client and the email asked for him to login using his account number and password, he was concerned that it was a scam. The message was actually legitimate; however, it does highlight the benefit of having a financial adviser. There is someone who knows you, and is able to check these communications at an adviser level.
The same client also told me that at the last minute, his sister-in-law recently managed to halt a $20,000 super scam from ‘Telstra’. The scammers had enough details to make her think a high-pressure phone call was legitimate, and they installed rogue software on her laptop.
Upon realising they had been thwarted at the last step, the same scammers came back purporting to be from the National Crime Authority looking into scams! Their ears may well be ringing from the dressing down they were given.
If you receive such a call, demand personal ID and then phone them back on a number you have found on a bill or a statement, not one they provide you with.
I am constantly reminding everyone to be on guard against scammers and to follow the Federal Government’s scam watch: http://www.cyber.gov.au/protect-yourself
Don’t forget to stay scam alert – they are everywhere – and I expect the superannuation pool in Australia is going to be very tempting to these crooks.
One of the layers of security our clients have is the personal relationship with their adviser and our team. We recognise voices, we know the individuals, we are business ‘friends.’
As always, if I or any of our team can be of assistance, please don’t hesitate to get in touch by either calling (08) 8130 5130 or email admin@marinisgroup.com.au
Yours sincerely
Theo Marinis CFP®, B.A., B.Ec., CPA., MCIFAA
Financial Strategist
Authorised Representative
