Dear Friends
The economy – what’s next?
This is the eternal question we ask of economists – only to receive the equivocal answer “on the one hand the outcome may be… or on the other hand…”
In reality, economic events and outcomes can only be viewed from hindsight. For example – who would have predicted President Trump’s incursion into Venezuela, his tariff policy, or his threats over Greenland? And if you had, you may well have sold your investments and sat on the sidelines, missing the recent market upside.
For some time now (particularly in 2025 and early 2026) there has been speculation and discussion about a Trump administration revaluation of US gold reserves from a historical price of $42.22 USD per troy ounce (used for measuring precious metals) to reflect the current market price of around $5,300 USD per troy ounce (or significantly higher than that!) – potentially unlocking massive paper gains to fund Bitcoin reserves or address fiscal deficits.
This move is not unprecedented. FDR revalued US gold reserves in 1934, as did Nixon 1971; it just doesn’t happen very often!
If a revaluation eventuates, it will be great news for holders of gold stocks and physical gold. In reality, as with the past revaluations, this will be more of a headline grabbing blip than having a medium-to-long term market impact.
As I always tell clients, my long-held investment philosophy is based on the three rules of investing: diversify, diversify and diversify. You will get rich slowly this way – and stay rich.
I recently tested this approach, as I often do in the holiday period, by examining the positions of two long-term clients (both now in their mid-80s) who have been my clients since 2006.
I was delighted (but not surprised) to see that both clients have remarkably similar investment balances to those they first invested – despite drawing down an income every year. In other words, over the last 20 years they have each effectively drawn tax-exempt pensions equal to the growth and income on the initial amounts invested!
That is because at least 70% of the income drawn from account-based pensions is from earnings on the original funds invested.
Of course, there have been highs and lows in the market (including the GFC in 2008 which saw share markets all over the world fall around 55%) but a consistent investment approach has paid off in spades.
Investment outlook for 2026
Recent review meetings with clients have been somewhat ‘joyous’ given the positive share market run over the past year. Whilst an expected long-term return on a balanced portfolio is based on an average 6 - 7% pa however, I like to advise people to plan around a return of 5% pa and build their retirement spending expectations on this figure. To borrow a cheeky line from recently retired investment guru Warren Buffett, as the investment tide metaphorically goes out, we discover who has not been wearing bathers!
This year will be the same as every other. We might get another market correction, or we might get a continued boom. Trust your strategy and stay in your seat.
Congratulations to Jason and Trevor
After 12 years as a loyal Marinis Financial Group staff member, Jason Zanini has decided to establish his own business. Trevor Botterill, also a loyal and valued staff member, has joined Jason in this venture. We sincerely wish them every success.
Scamwatch
Please do not take your eyes off the ball when it comes to scams in 2026. (www.cyber.gov.au/scams should be a regular port of call.) Thieves can ‘smell’ money and are drawn to superannuation and investments using increasingly sophisticated methods to gain access. We all need to be more than vigilant.
And one more thing – New Premises
As flagged in previous editions of Grow, after seven years, with the approaching end of our current lease, Marinis Financial Group will be relocating to new premises – details to be confirmed soon. Our move will not affect our telephone and email contact information, or importantly, our service to you.
As always, if I or any of our team can be of assistance, please don’t hesitate to get in touch by either calling (08) 8130 5130 or email admin@marinisgroup.com.au
Yours sincerely
Theo Marinis CFP®, B.A., B.Ec., CPA., MCIFAA
Financial Strategist
Authorised Representative
